華泰證券:汽車業(yè)二季度業(yè)績環(huán)比將增長

 

    2009年3月，我國汽車銷量創(chuàng)下了歷史新高，同時(shí)庫存再創(chuàng)新低。細(xì)分車型來看，交叉型乘用車和轎車銷量延續(xù)了2月份的增長，大中客和重卡銷量觸底強(qiáng)勁反彈，但出口仍非常低迷。 

 

　　一季度特別是前兩個(gè)月，低端車型的旺銷使得乘用車呈現(xiàn)增量不增收局面；在銷量同比增長的情況下，乘用車子行業(yè)一季度業(yè)績將會(huì)低于去年同期。具體上市公司而言，乘用車中長安汽車(7.74,0.00,0.00%)、一汽夏利(6.14,0.00,0.00%)和上海汽車(10.60,0.00,0.00%)存在業(yè)績同比下降的可能。二季度中高端乘用車銷量將會(huì)有所恢復(fù)，建議關(guān)注上海汽車。

 

　　商用車中大中客和重卡行業(yè)一季度銷量同比下降30%左右，宇通客車(13.30,0.00,0.00%)、金龍汽車(7.69,0.00,0.00%)、中國重汽(22.00,0.00,0.00%)、和濰柴動(dòng)力(31.36,0.00,0.00%)一季度業(yè)績存在大幅下滑的可能。但我們看好商用車二季度銷量表現(xiàn)，推薦宇通客車和濰柴動(dòng)力。

 

　　一季度極低的庫存將會(huì)刺激整車廠商加大生產(chǎn)力度，零部件企業(yè)將會(huì)顯著受益。汽車零部件上市公司中，我們推薦福耀玻璃(7.20,0.00,0.00%)、中鼎股份(11.55,0.00,0.00%)、巴士股份(6.77,0.00,0.00%)、一汽富維(13.86,0.00,0.00%)。